Monday, July 18, 2011

neptune69 presents compelling case for long term investment in JBII


Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:

There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.

JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.

The value per barrel is approximately $100.

The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.

Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.

So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.

So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.

Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.

Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.

Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstock per year.

There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.

There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.

Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!

All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!

That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.

This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.

Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is de minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing.

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