Here's a Jan 2, 2010 message from an ardent shareholder, "Estimated Prophet" posted on www.investorshub.com JBII message board.
New Years Eve Party
JBII research. It appears that many people are still finding ways to get more money into JBI than I could have imagined. People are really, really jacked up. The lives this stock has touched is a very cool subplot to all this. I spoke with a good mix of different stock market participants this weekend. Casual investors, people who never invest at all, investment advisors, fund managers
, experienced personal traders, etc. The feeling is unanimous that this is the greatest investment opportunity they have ever seen and felt. I was very surprised to hear of how much money would love to buy up a nice retrace into the $5's.
Maybe my fear of a strong retrace into the new tax season is unsubstantiated. My main reason for posting it was to warn of the psychological attack that will come during those times. I would just hate to see it pry shares away from good people. If I'm/we are wrong about JBI, then of course I/we are dangerous with this line of reasoning, but I personally believe, outside of the risk that any enterprise faces, that JBI is "the one".
The baton is currently being passed from retail to big money on JBI. Small retail passed the story on for the past 6 months, but now the big boys are telling everyone in their web of influence. They are going to jockey for position against each other over the next month or so. Clamoring for their stake of the pie. Not just investors, but JV owners as well. Then, JBI goes to the mass public. Infomercials of Pak-It, Garbage Patch publicity, analyst recommendations and price targets, CNBC appearances and magazine articles of John, etc.
What a ride this is going to be!
When you wish upon a star? Even I think this is ridiculously corny, but this story did go down this way. It will be incredible if it comes to be, but I have no idea if it will.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44727156
To know the truth, one must get rid of knowledge, as nothing is more powerful and creative than emptiness.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Friday, January 1, 2010
JBII Shareholder presents his 2010 revenue analysis - Not guaranteed, informed speculation
On Jan 1, 2010 iHub poster GWMAN presented his revenue guesstimates for JBI in 2010
My revenue guesstimates for 2010:
$165 million in revenue for 2010 is what I now consider a realistic target for JBII, assuming no acquisitions in 2010.
Q1 - $5+ million
Pak-It - $3 mill
Javaco - $1.5 mill
Tapes - $0.5 mill
P2O - $0.25 mill (1 company-owed site running by March 1; using $3 million annually per comp-owned site)
Q2 - $8.5+ million
Pak-It - $3.75 mill
Javaco - $1.5 mill
Tapes - $0.6 mill
P2O Land - $3.0 mill
(6 company-owned sites running by May 1; cumulatively generating $50K per day over 60 days)
P2O Build Out - 0.0 million
(During this quarter, JBII would be setting up an additional 40 sites for next Q. Some of these will likely come on line before the end of the Q and contribute some revenue. However, I am assuming there will be glitches and growing pains. so I do not include any of this revenue in this Q.
Q3 - $51+ million
Pak-It - $4.5 mill
Javaco - $1.8 mill
Tapes - $0.9 mill
P2O Ship(1)- $5 mill
P2O land - $27.0 mill
(26 company-owned[$216K/day] and 20 65/35 JV [$108K/day] sites running by July 1; using 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 85 days of operation)
P2O Land build-out - $12.6 mill
(In Q3, I guess 52 company-owned sites and 20 65/35 sites will be installed; assuming $7.5K/per day/per company site and $5K/day/JV site, which is approx 10% less efficient output compared to sites from previous Qs due to fast expansion; assuming installation ramp-up so assuming 10 company sites operate for 45 days in quarter, 20 company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 30 days, and 22 Company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 15 days)
Q4 - $104+ million
Pak-It - $6.0 mill
Javaco - $1.8 mill
Tapes - $1.0 mill
P2O Ship(2) - $10.0 mill
P2O land installed - $69.1 mill (78 company-owned[$648K/day] and 40 65/35 JV [$216K/day] sites running by October 1; assumes JB expands chamber production in China to meet the need for production greater than 1 chamber per day; using approx. 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 80 days of operation)
P2O Land logarithmic - $16.8 mill (In Q4, one site per day will be starting operations; assuming half company-owned [$7,5K/per day/per site], half 65/35 JVs [$5K/day/site]; assuming 30 sites produce for 45 days, 30 sites produce for 30 days and 30 sites produce for 15 days)
My revenue guesstimates for 2010:
$165 million in revenue for 2010 is what I now consider a realistic target for JBII, assuming no acquisitions in 2010.
Q1 - $5+ million
Pak-It - $3 mill
Javaco - $1.5 mill
Tapes - $0.5 mill
P2O - $0.25 mill (1 company-owed site running by March 1; using $3 million annually per comp-owned site)
Q2 - $8.5+ million
Pak-It - $3.75 mill
Javaco - $1.5 mill
Tapes - $0.6 mill
P2O Land - $3.0 mill
(6 company-owned sites running by May 1; cumulatively generating $50K per day over 60 days)
P2O Build Out - 0.0 million
(During this quarter, JBII would be setting up an additional 40 sites for next Q. Some of these will likely come on line before the end of the Q and contribute some revenue. However, I am assuming there will be glitches and growing pains. so I do not include any of this revenue in this Q.
Q3 - $51+ million
Pak-It - $4.5 mill
Javaco - $1.8 mill
Tapes - $0.9 mill
P2O Ship(1)- $5 mill
P2O land - $27.0 mill
(26 company-owned[$216K/day] and 20 65/35 JV [$108K/day] sites running by July 1; using 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 85 days of operation)
P2O Land build-out - $12.6 mill
(In Q3, I guess 52 company-owned sites and 20 65/35 sites will be installed; assuming $7.5K/per day/per company site and $5K/day/JV site, which is approx 10% less efficient output compared to sites from previous Qs due to fast expansion; assuming installation ramp-up so assuming 10 company sites operate for 45 days in quarter, 20 company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 30 days, and 22 Company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 15 days)
Q4 - $104+ million
Pak-It - $6.0 mill
Javaco - $1.8 mill
Tapes - $1.0 mill
P2O Ship(2) - $10.0 mill
P2O land installed - $69.1 mill (78 company-owned[$648K/day] and 40 65/35 JV [$216K/day] sites running by October 1; assumes JB expands chamber production in China to meet the need for production greater than 1 chamber per day; using approx. 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 80 days of operation)
P2O Land logarithmic - $16.8 mill (In Q4, one site per day will be starting operations; assuming half company-owned [$7,5K/per day/per site], half 65/35 JVs [$5K/day/site]; assuming 30 sites produce for 45 days, 30 sites produce for 30 days and 30 sites produce for 15 days)
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