Tuesday, June 29, 2010

"tykundegex" estimates earnings potential for P2O


1 "site" can process from 20 to 60 tons/day (20 being the min, 60 being 8hrs worth incl. downtime for cleaning), which assumes only a single full-size (20-ton) processor runs at a given time.The "20-ton" processor shown to many AGM attendees can digest about 1 metric ton (1000kg) of plastic in about 5 minutes. 1 metric ton is fed into the pre-heated machine (main reactor). The catalyst is added. Within 5 minutes the temperature of the reactor drops by almost 100C almost instantly, and the fuel starts to come out in the condenser.

Count 20 tons in 2 hours. Given the low residue (which of course depends on the input) you don't have to clean it out before several "batches" (although it will run in continuous mode). So 60 tons a day is very feasible even taking into consideration the clean-out. So even with maintenance and other down-time, you can see that 20 tons/day is a conservative estimate, and has been the number JBI has given from the start. And THAT is what the math was based on: 20 tons/day.

That's 125-375 barrels.

If output is sold for $75/barrel, and all operational costs total $10/barrel, then the daily profit from the site is between roughly $8k and $24k. If it's run 300 days / year, that's $2.4m - $7.2m.

So go with the low number, and that's roughly 0.05 EPS per site. That means that every company-owned site (where JBI retains all the profit), could add $1 to the PPS. In the AGM slides (last slide) JBI states that they will prove the viability of P2O with 2-3 running processors in NY

Pretty good prospects for a pink sheet delinquent filer, wouldn't you say? wink

Tykün

P.S. the assumptions for this math:
. plastic is acquired for free
. plastic doesn't require pre-treating (e.g. PVC)
. fuel output is sold at crude oil prices
. $10/barrel is the total OpEx cost
. civil war doesn't break out
. OPEC doesn't start pricing oil in Euros
. the P/E is 20
. the O/S count stay at 50m
. bears and shorts stop messing with the PPS .. wink

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